МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ СТРУКТУРНИХ ЗАВ’ЯЗКІВ МІЖ ДИНАМІКОЮ РОЗВИТКУ АГРОСТРАХУВАННЯ, АГРАРНОГО СЕКТОРА ТА РІВНЕМ ПРОДОВОЛЬЧОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ УКРАЇНИ
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Надіслано: 10-07-2023
Опубліковано: 31-08-2023
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Анотація
Метою дослідження є розробка науково-методичного підходу (моделі) щодо визначення впливу агрострахування на розвиток аграрної галузі та рівень продовольчої безпеки України для ухвалення відповідних управлінських рішень у сфері сільського господарства.
Методичним інструментарієм статті є структурне моделювання. Процес моделювання було здійснено за допомогою структурних рівнянь. Для реалізації поставленого завдання було використано інструментарій програмного комплексу Statistica 12 (Statistics, Advanced linear/nonlinear Models, Structural Equation Modeling).
У результаті проведеного дослідження встановлено, що зростання рівня розвитку страхування аграрних ризиків на 100% призводить до зростання індикаторів розвитку аграрної галузі на 30,8%. У свою чергу, збільшення на 100% рівня розвитку аграрної галузі спричиняє зростання рівня продовольчої безпеки на 45,6%. Однак, якщо рівень розвитку аграрного страхування збільшити на 100%, то продовольча безпека зросте на 13,7%. Таким чином, висунута гіпотеза про прямий вплив аграрного страхування на розвиток аграрної галузі й через це – на продовольчу безпеку України повністю підтверджена. Авторами статті запропоновано здійснювати оцінювання напряму та сили взаємозв’язку між рівнями розвитку агрострахування, аграрної галузі та продовольчої безпеки шляхом побудови системи однофакторних та багатофакторних регресійних рівнянь за допомогою структурного моделювання. Вплив рівня розвитку аграрного страхування на розвиток аграрної галузі та рівень продовольчої безпеки в Україні підтверджений, і механізм державної підтримки страхування сільськогосподарської продукції повинен ураховувати отримані результати. При цьому розвиток агрострахування в Україні повинен реалізовуватися на державно-приватних засадах.
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