ОЦІНКА ВПЛИВУ МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНИХ КРИЗ І ВІЙНИ НА ДІЯЛЬНІСТЬ АТ «УКРЗАЛІЗНИЦЯ»
Article Sidebar
Надіслано: 13-09-2023
Опубліковано: 31-12-2023
©, Авторські права належать авторам.
Ця стаття опублікована відповідно до стандартів відкритого доступу та розповсюджується за ліцензією Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), яка дозволяє необмежене використання, розповсюдження та відтворення змісту на будь-якому носії, за умови зазначення оригінального автора та джерела.
Main Article Content
Анотація
Незважаючи на значну загрозу, яку становлять макроекономічні кризи та війна для економічної діяльності організацій, в існуючій літературі мало уваги приділяється чіткій ідентифікації та кількісній оцінці таких наслідків. Ураховуючи цей факт, метою дослідження є оцінка впливу збройної агресії на економічну діяльність організацій в умовах макроекономічних криз. Методологія дослідження включає емпіричний і кількісний аналіз. Емпіричний аналіз проводився на основі офіційних статистичних даних АТ «Укрзалізниця» та Міністерства фінансів України. Кількісний аналіз ґрунтується на методах дослідження подій і різниці у відмінності для кількісної оцінки впливу макроекономічних криз і війни на організацію. Отримано кількісні оцінки негативних наслідків двох макроекономічних криз (2009 та 2014-2015 років) і воєнних дій (що розпочалися 2014 р., але не враховуючи її нового етапу – повномасштабної війни з 2022 р.) в Україні на вантажні перевезення АТ «Укрзалізниця». Застосування запропонованого підходу до оцінки наслідків війни завдяки його універсальності можливе для потреб і цілей не тільки транспортних компаній, а й інших організацій. Новизна: серед наявних розробок із цієї проблематики вперше за допомогою існуючих методів проведено формальну оцінку наслідків воєнної агресії рф, що розпочалася 2014 р., у контексті макроекономічних криз, що дозволяє отримати оцінки параметрів, стійких до індивідуально специфічних та часових неоднорідностей.
Article Details
Посилання
Abadie, A. (2005). Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators. The Review of Economic Studies, 72(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/0034-6527.00321 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/0034-6527.00321
Angrist, J., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51992844_Mostly_Harmless_Econometrics_An_Empiricist's_Companion DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829828
Asamoah, R. O., Baiden, B. K., Nani, G., & Kissi, E. (2019). Review of External Economic Indicators Influencing Construction Industry. Advances in Civil Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/6073289 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/6073289
Ashesh, R., & Roth, J. (2019). An Honest Approach to Parallel Trends. Working Paper. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jroth/files/roth_jmp_honestparalleltrends_main.pdf
Auvinen, J. (1997). Political Conflict in Less Developed Countries, 1981–1989. Journal of Peace Research, 34(2), 177–195. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343397034002005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343397034002005
Barsauskas, P., Kurschus, R.-J., & Pilinkienė, V. (2011). The influence of the global crisis on German economy. Transformations in Business and Economics, 10(3), 197–212. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287093055_The_influence_of_the_global_crisis_on_German_economy
Borodina, O. (2022). Basic trends of postwar transformation of Ukraine’s economy: industry 4.0, budgetary decentralization, regional energy management. Journal of Innovations and Sustainability, 6(1), 04. https://doi.org/10.51599/is.2022.06.01.04 DOI: https://doi.org/10.51599/is.2022.06.01.04
Bluszcz, J., & Valente, M. (2022). The economic costs of hybrid wars: the case of Ukraine. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1791616 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1791616
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (2018). National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/430-2018-%D1%80#Text
Catalão, P. F., Cruz, O. C., & Sarmento, M. J. (2019). External determinants of cost deviations and overruns in local infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 37(12), 697–711. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2019.1576915 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2019.1576915
Coyne, C. J., & Mathers, R. L. (Eds.) (2011). The Handbook on the Political Economy of War. Northampton, Mass.: Edward Elgar Publishing. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781849808323
Difference between SWOT, PEST, STEEP and STEEPLE Analysis. (n.d.). http://pestleanalysis.com/difference-swot-pest-steep-steeple-analysis
Fabro, G., & Aixala, J. (2012). Direct and indirect effects of economic and political freedom on economic growth. Journal of Economic Issues, 46(4), 1059–1080. https://doi.org/10.2753/JEI0021-3624460411 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2753/JEI0021-3624460411
Felix Raj, S. J., & Roy, S. (2014). Impact of financial crisis in Asia. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 133, 336–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.04.199 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.04.199
Frankfurter, G. M., & McGoun, E. G. (1993). The event study: an industrial strength method. International Review of Financial Analysis, 2(2), 121–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/1057-5219(93)90011-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/1057-5219(93)90011-6
Glick, R., & Taylor, A. M. (2005). Collateral Damage: trade disruption and the economic impact of war. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp05-11bk.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w11565
Goodman-Bacon, A. (2019). Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing. NBER Working paper No. 25018. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25018 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w25018
Herrera, R., & Gentilucci, E. (2013). Military spending, technical progress, and economic growth: a critical overview on mainstream defense economics. Journal of Innovation Economics & Management, 2(12), 13–35. https://doi.org/10.3917/jie.012.0013 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/jie.012.0013
Hoffmann, D. (2011). The impact of the financial crisis in Brazil and Germany: a comparative analysis of distinct developments. https://modelosfinanceiros.com.br/assets/documentos/Financial_Crisis_in_Brazil_and_Germany.pdf
Howell, K. (2011). War and Economy. McNair Scholars Journal, 15(1), 4. https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1303&context=mcnair
Hranaturov, V. M., & Korablynova, Y. A. (2016). Managing the Competitiveness of Enterprises. Odesa: ONAS, 55 p.
Hui-Kuang, Yu. T., & Kun-Huang, H. (2020). A new event study method to forecast stock returns: the case of Facebook. Journal of Business Research, 115, 317–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.11.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.11.006
Ivanov, S. V. (2015). The impact of armed conflict (war, hostilities) on the value of the enterprise. Dnipropetrovsk: Makovetsky Publishing. 175 p.
Kashirnikova, I. O. (2016). Approach to determining the influence of external factors on the management of innovation potential of a construction company. Investments: Practice and Experience, 7, 86–92. http://www.investplan.com.ua/pdf/7_2016/16.pdf
Kasperovych, Yu. V. (2018). Methodical approaches to estimating the fiscal losses of Ukraine due to the hybrid war of the russian Federation. Economy and State, 12, 8–15. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6806.2018.12.8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6806.2018.12.8
Kesternich, I., Siflinger, B., Smith, J. P., & Winter, J. K. (2012). The effects of World War II on economic and health outcomes across Europe. IZA Discussion Papers, No. 6296. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn. https://docs.iza.org/dp6296.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/WR917
Keswani, S., & Wadhwa, B. (2017). Effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market: a conceptual study. International Journal of Management, IT and Engineering, 7(10), 85–106. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324182582_Effect_of_Macroeconomic_Variables_on_Stock_Market_A_Conceptual_Study
Klymenko, N., Voronenko, I., Nehrey, M., Rogoza, K., & Rogoza, N. (2023). Risk assessment of shock periods and investment attractiveness of agroholdings of Ukraine. Agricultural and Resource Economics, 9(2), 163–182. https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2023.09.02.07 DOI: https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2023.09.02.07
Kolinets, L., & Radynskyy, S. (2020). The impact of the growth of military expenditure on the economic development of the countries. Efektyvna ekonomika, 8. https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105-2020.8.8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105-2020.8.8
Kosuke, I., & Weinstein, J.M. (2000). Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War. CID Working Paper Series 2000.51. Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/39547794
Kotler, P., & Caslione, J. A. (2009). Chaotics: The Business of Managing and Marketing in the Age of Turbulence. AMACOM. http://kolegjifama.eu/materialet/Biblioteka%20Elektronike/Chaotics%20The%20Business%20of%20Managing%20and%20Marketing%20in%20the%20Age%20of%20Turbulence.pdf
Kravets, T., Honcharuk, V., Lazarev, V., & Pavliuk, A. (2020). Results of the work of the railway transport on environmental protection for 2002–2019 Ukrzaliznytsia. Managing the Environmental Management, 60.
Kulikov, P., Aziukovskyi, O., Vahonova, O., Bondar, O., Akimova, L., & Akimov, O. (2022) Post-war economy of Ukraine: innovation and investment development project. Economic Affairs (New Delhi), 67(5), 943–959. https://doi.org/10.46852/0424-2513.5.2022.30 DOI: https://doi.org/10.46852/0424-2513.5.2022.30
Makogon, Yu. V. (2017). Causes and factors of the economic crisis in Ukraine in the conditions of military-political confrontation in the east of the country. Economic Bulletin of Donbas, 2(48), 220–235. http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/bitstream/handle/123456789/123513/27-Makogon.pdf?sequence=1
Mankiw, N. G. (1997). Macroeconomics, 3rd ed. New York, Worth Publishers.
Marcus, M., & Sant’Anna, P. H. C. (2021). The Role of Parallel Trends in Event Study Settings: an Application to Environmental Economics, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 8(2), 235–275. https://doi.org/10.1086/711509 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/711509
Martyniuk, V., Dluhopolskyi, O., Kniaz, S., Podolchak, N., Muravska, Y., & Martyniuk, B. (2020). The Fiscal Policy Impact on Indicators of the State’s Economic Growth. 2020 10th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies (ACIT), 695–698. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT49673.2020.9208903 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT49673.2020.9208903
Minfin (2021). Gross Domestic Product. https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/economy/gdp/2021
Nefedova, A.G. (2019). Analysis of assessment methods of enterprise competitiveness. Economic Bulletin of Ukrainian State University of Chemical Technology, 1(9), 110–116. http://ek-visnik.dp.ua/wp-content/uploads/pdf/2019-1/Nefedova.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.32434/2415-3974-2019-9-1-110-116
Novak, A., Pravdyvets, O., Chornyi, O., Sumbaieva, L., Akimova, L., & Akimov, O. (2022). Financial and economic security in the field of financial markets at the stage of European integration. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 7(5), e0835. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i5.e835 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i5.e835
Official site of the International Monetary Fund (2021). Retrieved from http://www.imf.org
Official site of the Joint Stock Company „Ukrainian Railway” (2021). https://www.uz.gov.ua
Official site of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (2021). https://www.me.gov.ua
Official site of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine (2021). https://mtu.gov.ua
Official site of the World Bank (2021). http://www.worldbank.org
Рedro, H. C., & Sant’Anna, Jun Zhao (2020). Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 219(1), 101–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.06.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.06.003
Pedrycz, W., Ekel, P., & Parreiras, R. (2011). Fuzzy multicriteria decision-making: models, methods and applications. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470974032
Polchanov, A. Yu. (2017). Losses of the Ukrainian economy from the military conflict. Agrosvit, 11, 40–46. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317752371_LOSSES_OF_UKRAINIAN_ECONOMY_FROM_THE_MILITARY_CONFLICT
Prokopenko, O., Kazanska, O., Deineha, I., Butenko, N., Omelyanenko, V., & Bovkun, O. (2020). Communication Business Processes of Industrial Enterprises in the Conditions of Globalisation. International Journal of Management, 11(5), 884–895. https://doi.org/10.34218/IJM.11.5.2020.081
Prokopenko, O., Shmorgun, L., Kushniruk, V., Prokopenko, M., Slatvinska, M., & Huliaieva, L. (2020). Business process efficiency in a digital economy. International Journal of Management, 11(3), 122–132. https://doi.org/10.34218/IJM.11.3.2020.014
Rakauskienė, O. G., & Krinickienė, E. (2009). The Anatomy of Global Financial Crisis. Intellectual Economics, 2(6), 116–128. https://ojs.mruni.eu/ojs/intellectual-economics/article/view/1201
Rasler, K., & Thompson, W. (1985). War and the Economic Growth of Major Powers. American Journal of Political Science, 29(3), 513–538. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111141 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2111141
Riddell, T. (1970). The Economic Effects of the War in Vietnam. Review of Radical Political Economics, 2(3), 41–72. https://doi.org/10.1177/048661347000200306 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/048661347000200306
Ronning, G. (1998). Potentials and Limitations of Econometric Forecast and Simulation Models. In R. Galata, H. Küchenhoff (Eds.). Econometrics in Theory and Practice. Physica-Verlag HD. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47027-1_8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47027-1_8
Sang, J., Nam-Hyuk, H., Ju-Hyung, K., & Jae-Jun, K. (2013). Impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on insolvency: case of Korean construction companies. Journal of Management in Engineering, 30(5), 5014009. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000235 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000235
Shpak, N., Dvulit, Z., Luchnikova, T., & Sroka, W. (2018). Strategic development of cargo transit services: a case study analysis. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 10(4), 76–84. https://doi.org/10.2478/emj-2018-0024 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/emj-2018-0024
Shpak, N., Seliuchenko, N., Kharchuk, V., Kosar, N., & Sroka, W. (2019). Evaluation of Product Competitiveness: A Case Study Analysis. Organizacija, 52(2), 107–125. https://doi.org/10.2478/orga-2019-0008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/orga-2019-0008
Shtal, T. V., Buriak, M. M., Аmirbekuly, Y., Ukubassova, G. S., Kaskin, T. T., & Toiboldinova, Z. G. (2018). Methods of analysis of the external environment of business activities. Revista ESPACIOS, 39(12), 1–22. http://repository.hneu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/19872/1/Methods%20of%20analysis%20of%20the%20external%20environment%20of%20business%20activities.pdf
State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2021). http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua
Sumets, A., Kniaz, S., Heorhiadi, N., Skrynkovskyy, R., & Matsuk, V. (2022). Methodological toolkit for assessing the level of stability of agricultural enterprises. Agricultural and Resource Economics, 8(1), 235-255. https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2022.08.01.12 DOI: https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2022.08.01.12
SWOT Analysis (n.d.). http://research-methodology.net/theory/strategy/swotanalysis
Tambunan, T. (2018). The impact of the economic crisis on micro, small, and medium enterprises and their crisis mitigation measures in Southeast Asia with reference to Indonesia. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 6(1), 19–39. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.264 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.264
Thies, C. F., & Baum, Ch. F. (2020). The Effect of War оn Economic Growth. Cato Journal, 40(1), 199–212. https://doi.org/10.36009/CJ40.1.10.
Ting, Y., Keele, L., Hasegawa, R., & Small, D. S. (2022). A Negative Correlation Strategy for Bracketing in Difference-in-Differences. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2006.02423
Top 10-armed conflicts in 2020. (2020). https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2020/02/14/infografika/svit/top-10-zbrojnyx-konfliktiv-2020-roczi
Ullah, S., Zaefarian, G., Ahmed, R., & Kimani, D. (2021). How to apply the event study methodology in STATA: An overview and a step-by-step guide for authors. Industrial Marketing Management, 99, A1-A12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2021.02.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2021.02.004
Vytvytska, O. D., Martynyuk, O. A., Shpak, N. О., Karcheva, G. T., Medynsky, I., & Nodzhak, L. S. (2020). Structural-functional modeling for the determination of the company’s equilibrium conditions in the dynamic business environment. Mathematical Modeling and Computing, 7(1), 104–111. https://doi.org/10.23939/mmc2020.01.104 DOI: https://doi.org/10.23939/mmc2020.01.104
Waqas, M., & Israr, H. (2018). Effects of Economic Climate on Internal and External Conflicts. MPRA Paper No, 92465. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/92465
Wojtowicz, D., Milio, S., Garnizova, E., Olechnicka, A., Janowski, P., & Durazzi, N. (2014). Impact of the Crisis on Social, Economic and Territorial Cohesion of the European Union. Vol. II. https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.2138.4964
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Wooldridge, J. М. (2009). Difference-in-Differences Estimation. Kvantil, 6, 25–47. https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/research/population-health-methods/difference-difference-estimation#:~:text=DID%20is%20typically%20used%20to,and%20a%20population%20that%20is
Xianbo, Z., Bon-Gang, H., & Pheng, L. S. (2012). Implementing enterprise risk management in a Chinese construction firm based in Singapore. Proceedings from the World Construction Conference 2012 – Global Challenges in Construction Industry (pp. 434–444), 28–30 June, Colombo, Sri Lanka. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258023366_Implementing_enterprise_risk_management_in_a_Chinese_construction_firm_based_in_Singapore